Wallet digest

Activity score

60/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$1.7K

Total PnL

$-2.0K

Realised

$4.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 20

NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
718 shares @ 69.7¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$656.66
$156.66
NO
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
369 shares @ 81.2¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$323.17
$23.17
NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
341 shares @ 81.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$322.45
$46.21
NO
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
323 shares @ 93.0¢·now 96.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$310.16
$10.16
YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
612 shares @ 49.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$39.80
$-260.20
NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
930 shares @ 69.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-650.00
NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?
838 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
523 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026
$0.00
$-34.00
NO
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
316 shares @ 25.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026
$0.00
$-80.19
YES
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
285 shares @ 59.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-168.82

Recent activity

YIELD$0.06Aug 4, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.06Aug 3, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.06Aug 2, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.06Aug 1, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 31, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 30, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.06Jul 16, 00:12 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity28 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry40 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk50 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 22, 00:14 UTC
Last active: Aug 4, 00:13 UTC
Win rate sample: 1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:01:21 UTC·src:Polymarket Data