Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Probability
67¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-10.0pp
24h Vol
$158.40
Liquidity
$13.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+38.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 10pp over 24h
Now 67¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 280h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $13.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 279.9h
- 14:07SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 280h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 67¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 67¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 67¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 71¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 73¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 73¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 73¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 72¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 72¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 56¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 59¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 73¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 76¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 74¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 76¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 75¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.0pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.5pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.0pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.5pp
to 77¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 39.0pp
to 78¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.5pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 41.0pp
to 77¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 47.0pp
to 78¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 46.0pp
to 77¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 46.5pp
to 77¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Green Party wins at least the listed number of council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate will be considered an official candidate of the Green Party if they are officially nominated by the Green Party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with the Green Party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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