Frilly-Hour
0xa9f9a82a05bdf53aca820ad1ced657cf2c025273
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$592.02
Total PnL
$-12.1K
Realised
$-146.59
Win rate
23%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
153 shares @ 78.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$124.53
$5.34
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
410 shares @ 16.8¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$123.09
$54.27
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
187 shares @ 38.6¢·now 54.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$101.71
$29.61
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
165 shares @ 55.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$91.47
$0.82
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
136 shares @ 67.2¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$75.26
$-15.89
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
166 shares @ 15.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$27.31
$2.48
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
222 shares @ 15.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$22.16
$-11.08
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
144 shares @ 13.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$16.60
$-2.17
- YES
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 The Open Championship?
173 shares @ 9.0¢·now 5.7¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$9.87
$-5.79
- OVER
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5
36904 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-82.81
Recent activity
- REDEEMSpread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)$8.49Jul 19, 06:49 UTC
- REDEEMGames Total: O/U 2.5$19.40Jul 19, 05:23 UTC
- REDEEMValorant: NRG vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha$11.10Jul 19, 05:16 UTC
- REDEEMWashington Nationals vs. Athletics$12.88Jul 19, 05:07 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Athletics (-1.5)$5.56Jul 19, 05:06 UTC
- REDEEMDetroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5$15.24Jul 19, 04:58 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)$9.91Jul 19, 04:58 UTC
- REDEEMDetroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5$19.90Jul 19, 04:55 UTC
- REDEEMDetroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5$48.36Jul 19, 04:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Atlas FC win on 2026-07-17?$0.70Jul 19, 04:49 UTC
- REDEEMSet 2 Winner: Hon vs Thandi$2.60Jul 19, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYDetroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5$1.15Jul 19, 04:36 UTC
- REDEEMWashington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5$9.52Jul 19, 04:34 UTC
- REDEEMWashington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5$12.75Jul 19, 04:29 UTC
- REDEEMValorant: NRG vs MIBR - Map 2 Winner$11.10Jul 19, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYDetroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5$2.80Jul 19, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5$3.29Jul 19, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYDetroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5$7.96Jul 19, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5$4.15Jul 19, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5$2.95Jul 19, 03:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
23% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $6.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 02:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 06:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.