Nippy-Legume
0xa9fe4929d4ea1525ca03bd0ff68ea1fbf9e7f135
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$87.9K
Total PnL
$-126.9K
Realised
$-79.1K
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
259728 shares @ 13.4¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.7K
$-10.1K
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
92528 shares @ 30.2¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.6K
$-4.4K
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
26406 shares @ 75.4¢·now 75.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$19.9K
$-46.87
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
72640 shares @ 23.3¢·now 22.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$16.0K
$-923.69
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
11268 shares @ 31.9¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.4K
$-215.22
- YES
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
4105 shares @ 6.8¢·now 7.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$301.71
$23.53
- YES
Iran Nuke before 2027?
1000 shares @ 12.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$52.50
$-67.50
- YES
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
119 shares @ 8.4¢·now 5.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?
57 shares @ 25.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.12
$-11.05
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
3 shares @ 38.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.86
$-0.14
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$900.00Jul 25, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$204.50Jul 25, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$4.44Jul 25, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$12.00Jul 25, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.3KJul 25, 02:08 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$27.95Jul 25, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$2.01Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$526.94Jul 24, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$989.01Jul 24, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$464.05Jul 24, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$10.00Jul 24, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$10.00Jul 24, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.0KJul 24, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.97Jul 24, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.28Jul 24, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$8.36Jul 24, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$8.36Jul 24, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$8.36Jul 24, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$8.36Jul 24, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$8.36Jul 24, 01:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $360.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 12:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 02:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.