Rectangular-Widget
0xac2539a43d86c8974dc4a0837a008f8a4ef807b3
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$4.34
Total PnL
$-4.66
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.28
$0.28
- NO
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
1 shares @ 96.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
1 shares @ 87.2¢·now 90.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- NO
Will Vučić officially leave office by July 17?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.95
$-0.05
- NO
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?
3 shares @ 36.0¢·now 1.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.04
$-0.96
- YES
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 32.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
2 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMMegaquake by June 30?$1.10Jul 1, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMIran coup attempt by June 30?$1.09Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?$1.05Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMAnother Elon baby by June 30?$1.08Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?$1.02Jul 1, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?$1.26Jul 1, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vučić officially leave office by July 17?$1.01Jun 29, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.01Jun 27, 17:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?$1.30Jun 23, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?$1.20Jun 20, 06:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?$1.11Jun 19, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?$1.01Jun 17, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?$1.01Jun 17, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?$1.00Jun 17, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.00Jun 17, 15:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?$1.28Jun 1, 13:57 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$2.39Jun 1, 12:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?$1.05Jun 1, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?$1.06Jun 1, 07:19 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael closes its airspace by May 31?$1.23Jun 1, 07:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $1.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 11:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 08:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.