Gregarious-Compass
0xad90445070645b4b8f709a9fa198e4e76139c6b6
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$7.37
Total PnL
$-2.13
Realised
$-0.03
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.13
$0.00
- NO
Bill Gates charged by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.11
$0.00
- NO
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
1 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.04
$0.01
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.04
$0.00
- NO
Iran leadership change by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.02
$0.00
- YES
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 98.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- NO
Will Pam Bondi be held in contempt of Congress by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1325.00 on December 31 2025?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.65
- NO
Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Unidas por Extremadura (UPE) win the 2025 Extremadura regional election?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-0.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30?$3.66Jun 29, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30?$4.80Jun 29, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pam Bondi be held in contempt of Congress by June 30?$1.00Jun 29, 08:08 UTC
- TRADESELLBill Gates charged by June 30?$5.89Jun 29, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBill Gates charged by June 30?$7.00Jun 29, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?$1.03Jun 29, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 29, 08:02 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by June 30?$8.97Jun 29, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30?$10.00Jun 29, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?$10.05Jun 29, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?$1.00Jun 29, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?$11.10Jun 29, 07:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting?$1.01Jun 13, 12:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.01Jun 13, 12:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Comey smile in his mugshot?$1.01Jun 13, 12:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate after the May decision?$1.03Jun 13, 12:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$1.01May 26, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19?$1.01May 26, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill White House post 180-199 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$1.01May 26, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on May 19?$1.05May 26, 03:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $5.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 26, 08:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 29, 08:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.