Hurtful-Turkey-Disengagement
0xadc2d7aa903a20936a6c812f58b80340dfdb81b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$112.9K
Total PnL
$112.9K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
65575 shares @ 0.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$52.1K
$52.1K
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
44190 shares @ 0.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$32.0K
$32.0K
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
31328 shares @ 0.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$20.2K
$20.2K
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
10427 shares @ 0.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$5.5K
$5.5K
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
6544 shares @ 0.0¢·now 20.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$1.3K
$1.3K
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?
5985 shares @ 0.0¢·now 13.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$793.00
$793.00
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
1139 shares @ 0.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$518.35
$518.35
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?
811 shares @ 0.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$312.07
$312.07
- YES
Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?
80 shares @ 0.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$44.40
$44.40
- YES
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?
97 shares @ 0.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$33.91
$33.91
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.