Gray-Sitar
0xae1f0226a91aaeee2ce1b898979bd2bbea2704f1
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$4.60
Total PnL
$-81.83
Realised
$-16.23
Win rate
19%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
3 shares @ 46.2¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.40
$0.09
- NO
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
2 shares @ 48.2¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.88
$0.02
- NO
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
2 shares @ 40.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.88
$-0.08
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.78
$-0.17
- NO
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
1 shares @ 60.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.67
$0.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 28?
3239 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.28
- NO
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
25 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-9.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14?
20 shares @ 45.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- NO
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
19 shares @ 42.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-8.09
- UP
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?
12 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-6.38
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?$2.43Jun 27, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?$1.46Jun 25, 14:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21?$3.52Jun 22, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?$4.63Jun 22, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?$2.36Jun 22, 02:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?$3.60Jun 22, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?$5.64Jun 21, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?$4.51Jun 21, 23:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?$3.46Jun 21, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$3.36Jun 21, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?$0.96Jun 21, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?$3.59Jun 21, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?$3.79Jun 21, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?$4.69Jun 21, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$4.51Jun 21, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?$4.73Jun 21, 01:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on June 20?$6.24Jun 20, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on June 20?$8.47Jun 19, 23:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$2.33Jun 19, 19:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?$3.80Jun 19, 19:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
19% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $4.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 20:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 27, 06:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.