Keen-Carabao
0xaff50100ad36b68e56cb1e1f0482b5c6e06c44cb
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
34
Open notional
$196.78
Total PnL
$-234.37
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- YES
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
729 shares @ 15.3¢·now 21.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$153.03
$41.48
- YES
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
100 shares @ 23.0¢·now 23.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
50 shares @ 75.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$20.75
$-16.75
- YES
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days?
360 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2025$0.00
$-15.92
- YES
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?
300 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-5.10
- YES
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
233 shares @ 22.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-51.45
- NO
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
125 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-5.63
- YES
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
110 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.96
- YES
Will Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony?
103 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Was JFK assassination an inside job?
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$23.00May 29, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$37.50May 24, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?$15.00May 20, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?$8.00May 20, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?$8.50May 20, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?$5.12May 6, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 8?$5.10May 5, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$4.15May 4, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?$9.17Apr 29, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?$0.88Apr 29, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?$20.68Apr 28, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?$50.00Apr 22, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hillary say "Daughter" during her Epstein testimony?$2.00Mar 2, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony?$5.00Mar 2, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bill Clinton say "Plane" during his Epstein testimony?$1.00Mar 2, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bill Clinton say "Hillary" during his Epstein testimony?$1.00Mar 2, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bill Clinton say "Secretary" during his Epstein testimony?$1.00Mar 2, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bill Clinton say "Daughter" during his Epstein testimony?$2.00Mar 2, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?$4.75Jan 30, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?$2.50Jan 30, 22:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $7.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 5, 08:15 UTC
- Last active
- May 29, 12:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".