Elastic-Paramedic
0xb0beef5cfd5186b0e7674198d166b982b92628a5
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$7.84
Total PnL
$-41.63
Realised
$-0.47
Win rate
0%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2 shares @ 89.5¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.15
$0.15
- NO
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
1 shares @ 79.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.11
$0.11
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of August 17 2026?
1 shares @ 81.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$0.91
$-0.09
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
5 shares @ 20.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.88
$-0.13
- YES
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
1 shares @ 69.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Nov 13, 2026$0.83
$-0.17
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 95.3¢·now 77.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.81
$-0.19
- YES
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
30 shares @ 6.7¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.65
$-1.35
- YES
Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?
77 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of August 17 2026?$1.01Aug 17, 04:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYSituational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?$1.04Aug 17, 04:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon post "Tesla" on X this week?$1.08Aug 11, 20:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$1.41Aug 10, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks$1.02Aug 9, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon post "Tesla" on X this week?$1.00Aug 8, 05:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Airbnb say "International" during earnings call?$1.19Aug 6, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 6, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Airbnb say "International" during earnings call?$1.01Aug 6, 04:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX say "Data Center" during earnings call?$1.06Aug 4, 23:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill AMD say "Microsoft" or "Azure" during earnings call?$1.14Aug 4, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$1.01Aug 4, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AMD say "Microsoft" or "Azure" during earnings call?$1.00Aug 4, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX say "Data Center" during earnings call?$1.00Aug 4, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Palantir say "Infrastructure" during earnings call?$1.22Aug 3, 23:10 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?$1.04Aug 2, 22:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$1.09Aug 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.35Jul 31, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir say "Infrastructure" during earnings call?$1.01Jul 31, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during cabinet meeting?$1.04Jul 31, 05:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $1.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 23:37 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 04:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.