Scented-Satire
0xb15b740e8437cf9e90160b66587d615a2c8b5215
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$158.44
Total PnL
$-19.9K
Realised
$-1.4K
Win rate
67%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
800 shares @ 26.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$76.00
$-132.00
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
400 shares @ 57.8¢·now 13.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$54.60
$-176.60
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1103 shares @ 16.5¢·now 2.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.01
$-155.32
- YES
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
22 shares @ 61.1¢·now 3.8¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.83
$-12.62
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
20136 shares @ 33.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.7K
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?
7823 shares @ 67.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.3K
- YES
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
5335 shares @ 42.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.2K
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
4391 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.4K
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?
1487 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-461.54
- NO
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?
1209 shares @ 55.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-667.44
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the 10-year Treasury hit 4.15% (LOW) in April?$30.00Jun 29, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$9.65Jun 29, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$3.61Jun 29, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.14Jun 29, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$12.66Jun 29, 15:37 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.35May 1, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?$881.94Apr 30, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$48.00Apr 28, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?$39.95Apr 27, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?$159.94Apr 27, 22:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$24.06Apr 27, 21:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$61.74Apr 27, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$53.87Apr 27, 21:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$52.19Apr 27, 21:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$25.75Apr 27, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?$837.45Apr 27, 02:44 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.20Apr 27, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$324.43Apr 26, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?$167.32Apr 26, 21:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$143.52Apr 25, 08:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $110.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 23, 21:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 29, 15:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.