0xb29484920f6a499157327c1473e7ea8ffd1fa90c
0xb29484920f6a499157327c1473e7ea8ffd1fa90c
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
91
Open notional
$87.55
Total PnL
$-4.55
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- YES
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?
1 shares @ 77.0¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$1.27
$0.27
- NO
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
1 shares @ 72.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$1.19
$0.19
- NO
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30?
1 shares @ 83.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.19
$0.19
- NO
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
1 shares @ 87.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.15
$0.15
- NO
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 79.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.13
$0.13
- NO
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.13
$0.03
- NO
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.12
$0.12
- NO
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
2 shares @ 65.6¢·now 73.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.12
$0.12
- NO
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?
2 shares @ 66.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$1.10
$0.10
- NO
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.10
$0.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by July 31?$1.01Jul 2, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 2, 06:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?$1.17Jul 2, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?$1.08Jul 2, 03:05 UTC
- REDEEMAnother GTA VI trailer released by June 30?$1.09Jul 2, 03:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30?$1.11Jul 2, 03:05 UTC
- REDEEMMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?$1.12Jul 2, 03:05 UTC
- REDEEMRomanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$0.00Jul 2, 03:05 UTC
- REDEEMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$2.11Jul 2, 03:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?$1.06Jul 1, 10:29 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?$1.08Jul 1, 10:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?$1.02Jul 1, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?$1.01Jul 1, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $77.5B by July 31?$1.00Jul 1, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe have the third highest private market valuation on July 31?$1.00Jul 1, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$1.00Jul 1, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?$1.00Jul 1, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$1.00Jul 1, 07:03 UTC
- REDEEMEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?$1.03Jul 1, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?$1.49Jul 1, 06:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 16:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 06:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.