0xb2f51ca34e346397bacefeee952d1c35fa4bc37c
0xb2f51ca34e346397bacefeee952d1c35fa4bc37c
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$818.93
Total PnL
$-676.79
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
127 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$123.99
$-2.99
- NO
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
127 shares @ 99.9¢·now 96.8¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$122.97
$-4.00
- NO
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
127 shares @ 99.9¢·now 95.9¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$121.83
$-5.15
- NO
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
127 shares @ 99.9¢·now 93.6¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$118.97
$-8.01
- NO
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
127 shares @ 99.9¢·now 93.1¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$118.34
$-8.64
- NO
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
127 shares @ 99.9¢·now 87.7¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$111.47
$-15.51
- NO
Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
60 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$58.91
$-1.42
- NO
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
21 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$21.47
$0.03
- YES
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
121 shares @ 99.7¢·now 17.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$20.97
$-99.68
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3AM ET
279 shares @ 59.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-166.02
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Antonio Maíllo be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?$21.44Jul 5, 15:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 4?$20.13Jul 5, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMIran successfully targets shipping on July 1?$20.09Jul 5, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 4?$20.08Jul 4, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 1?$20.08Jul 1, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 48.0 and 48.9 in June?$20.16Jul 1, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 48.0 and 48.9 in June?$20.08Jul 1, 05:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,204,000 and $1,237,000 on June 30?$20.05Jun 30, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,171,000 and $1,204,000 on June 30?$20.05Jun 30, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in New York City be between $585,000 and $592,000 on June 30?$20.05Jun 30, 16:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?$20.40Jun 30, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,204,000 and $1,237,000 on June 30?$20.04Jun 30, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,171,000 and $1,204,000 on June 30?$20.04Jun 30, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in New York City be between $585,000 and $592,000 on June 30?$20.04Jun 30, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?$20.05Jun 29, 16:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jabarie Walker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?$6.72Jun 28, 04:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$21.78Jun 27, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May?$2.67Jun 25, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May?$2.67Jun 25, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$21.49Jun 21, 19:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $19.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 13:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 15:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.