Esteemed-Pumpernickel
0xb3d7736055eefc5948890303e6410f755b6f7504
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$11.0K
Total PnL
$2.1K
Realised
$98.55
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Kash Patel out by December 31?
1525 shares @ 38.5¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$488.24
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?
1012 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.0K
$111.11
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 35.2¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$835.00
$483.00
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
720 shares @ 73.4¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$659.05
$130.55
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
606 shares @ 93.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$606.04
$41.04
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
722 shares @ 76.7¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$574.19
$20.49
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
579 shares @ 44.2¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$442.72
$186.95
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
491 shares @ 61.1¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$429.67
$129.67
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
356 shares @ 84.3¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$332.77
$32.77
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
393 shares @ 82.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$308.26
$-13.74
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $380 in July?$318.38Jul 31, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in August?$95.27Jul 31, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?$200.70Jul 31, 20:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in July?$295.45Jul 31, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$105.31Jul 31, 17:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?$107.30Jul 31, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$110.31Jul 31, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$100.56Jul 31, 17:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$210.78Jul 31, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$68.14Jul 31, 17:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$61.26Jul 31, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$140.00Jul 31, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?$61.03Jul 31, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$206.15Jul 31, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$105.09Jul 31, 14:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$105.59Jul 31, 14:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jul 31, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?$100.32Jul 30, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?$87.50Jul 30, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?$30.08Jul 30, 21:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $116.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 08:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 20:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.