Feminine-Kiwi
0xb4011dbcbdad4761e61a99041fe278bb82bf3d11
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$184.59
Total PnL
$-89.46
Realised
$-19.94
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
60 shares @ 88.8¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.90
$-1.40
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
50 shares @ 96.0¢·now 97.7¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$48.83
$0.82
- NO
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
30 shares @ 90.3¢·now 91.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$27.30
$0.20
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.93
$0.09
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.95
$0.05
- NO
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 95.1¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$9.51
$4.51
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
10 shares @ 94.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.24
$-0.15
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
10 shares @ 92.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.45
$-1.75
- YES
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 4.9¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.49
$-4.51
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 3AM ET
370 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-34.30
Recent activity
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$0.00Jul 20, 17:46 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$0.00Jul 20, 17:46 UTC
- SPLITWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?$10.00Jul 20, 13:10 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$11.11Jul 20, 12:40 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$81.00Jul 20, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$10.19Jul 19, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$9.40Jul 19, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$9.12Jul 19, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$6.07Jul 19, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$21.54Jul 19, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$7.50Jul 19, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$10.05Jul 19, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$8.36Jul 19, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$9.23Jul 12, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$9.39Jul 12, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?$19.84Jul 10, 00:21 UTC
- REDEEMGPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?$100.00Jul 9, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?$0.20Jul 9, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?$0.01Jul 9, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?$0.01Jul 9, 17:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $17.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 19:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 17:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.