Improbable-Quail
0xb4015a4b57560d65eba9ca6f46691ef901de03ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$23.45
Total PnL
$-5.56
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET
4 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$4.26
$0.26
- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
2 shares @ 90.6¢·now 92.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.90
$0.04
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
6 shares @ 32.0¢·now 23.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.45
$-0.55
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.41
$0.41
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.09
$0.09
- NO
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1 shares @ 89.8¢·now 93.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
1 shares @ 93.9¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- YES
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 94.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
1 shares @ 96.2¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.02
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$4.02Jun 10, 22:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$0.16Jun 10, 22:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$3.82Jun 10, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$4.01Jun 10, 22:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election$1.47Jun 10, 22:17 UTC
- REDEEMCory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?$2.04Jun 10, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?$1.01May 19, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10B by June 30?$1.17May 19, 14:29 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$2.17May 19, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?$1.87May 8, 23:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Ceasefire" this week? (April 27 - May 3)$1.14May 8, 23:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?$1.16May 8, 23:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Ceasefire" this week? (April 27 - May 3)$1.00Apr 25, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Running Point: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?$1.00Apr 25, 15:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1480?$1.04Apr 25, 15:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Thrash" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$1.12Apr 25, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYCory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?$1.00Apr 16, 17:55 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?$1.39Apr 16, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Thrash" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$1.10Apr 16, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1480?$1.00Apr 16, 16:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $1.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 30, 20:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 22:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.