Half-Thrift
0xb4d7e65d51c1f3a7951c84f0f9b7bed7e939f73a
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$79.45
Total PnL
$-115.13
Realised
$1.91
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?
85 shares @ 11.7¢·now 35.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.13
$20.19
- YES
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?
5023 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$17.58
$-115.73
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
486 shares @ 2.0¢·now 3.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$15.32
$5.59
- YES
Will Waymo operate in 9 cities on June 30 2026?
126 shares @ 3.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.19
$4.41
- YES
Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?
92 shares @ 10.6¢·now 4.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.23
$-5.52
- YES
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$4.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026?
239 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-19.97
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.219d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?$10.009d ago
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.1011d ago
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.1011d ago
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$1.1513d ago
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.4216d ago
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.7717d ago
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.3018d ago
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.4018d ago
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.4018d ago
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.1418d ago
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.0818d ago
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$1.6619d ago
- REDEEMVEO 4 released by March 31, 2026?$0.0024d ago
- REDEEMWill SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in March?$0.0024d ago
- REDEEMWill GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?$0.0024d ago
- REDEEMWill January be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?$0.0024d ago
- REDEEMWill Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?$0.0024d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?$5.9530d ago
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?$0.0130d ago
Score breakdown
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $0.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 31d ago
- Last active
- 9d ago
Score is a 0–100 composite of open position size, breadth (number of trades), realised + unrealised ROI, win rate on closed markets, and category specialisation.