Instructive-Pagoda
0xb5b657ccc19b3626b34589c38a4f9240c3a01fda
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$6.4K
Total PnL
$-5.0K
Realised
$-1.5K
Win rate
0%
34 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
4198 shares @ 71.5¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.5K
$463.24
- NO
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?
1999 shares @ 75.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.6K
$59.84
- NO
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?
1030 shares @ 60.7¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$864.89
$239.72
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?
166 shares @ 60.3¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$135.23
$35.23
- NO
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?
140 shares @ 71.7¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$115.12
$15.12
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?
171 shares @ 58.6¢·now 67.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$114.40
$14.40
- NO
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
128 shares @ 78.4¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$110.98
$10.98
- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
587 shares @ 17.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.27
$-67.73
- YES
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly one nominating election in the 2026 cycle?
1129 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.95
$1.95
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5000 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 11?$108.08Aug 11, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 11?$102.00Aug 11, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly one nominating election in the 2026 cycle?$1.04Aug 10, 14:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?$175.67Aug 10, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?$251.80Aug 8, 07:53 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 7?$122.16Aug 7, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 7?$101.20Aug 7, 11:37 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?$1.0KAug 6, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?$251.96Aug 5, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?$1000.00Aug 3, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$121.95Jul 31, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?$1.1KJul 31, 20:39 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 30?$59.54Jul 30, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?$100.84Jul 30, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 30?$25.23Jul 30, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 30?$25.23Jul 30, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?$100.19Jul 29, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?$95.00Jul 29, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?$100.16Jul 29, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?$100.80Jul 29, 16:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 34 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
34 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $156.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 12:44 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 09:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 34 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.