Popular-Dough
0xb6f7be9c3c15c22a214f6130266bade0f5987b0b
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-194.14
Realised
$-5.41
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- ANNA KALINSKAYA
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Anna Kalinskaya
107 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
100 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 4?
91 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.49
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on June 4?
70 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?
65 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.55
Recent activity
- REDEEMSan Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers$20.29Jul 4, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers$14.13Jul 3, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Anna Kalinskaya$30.65Jul 3, 07:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$0.49Jul 3, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?$0.54Jul 3, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.80Jul 3, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?$0.93Jul 3, 07:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$5.56Jul 3, 07:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$4.80Jul 1, 02:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?$1.01Jul 1, 02:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.03Jul 1, 02:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?$1.03Jul 1, 02:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.04Jul 1, 02:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?$1.07Jul 1, 02:54 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?$2.05Jul 1, 02:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.91Jul 1, 02:54 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$4.30Jul 1, 02:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$5.60Jul 1, 02:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWorld Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. $6.26Jul 1, 02:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by December 31?$6.50Jul 1, 02:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $4.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 04:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.