Hard-Larva
0xb766be2ee36ae2d42b236e3fb16dbfb317351d83
Quality score
95/100
Open positions
25
Open notional
$32.8K
Total PnL
$3.2K
Realised
$-493.29
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
15432 shares @ 61.4¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.6K
$1.1K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
6595 shares @ 77.7¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.0K
$906.91
- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?
3747 shares @ 87.4¢·now 96.7¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$3.6K
$346.77
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
4056 shares @ 63.6¢·now 61.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.5K
$-107.31
- YES
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
5553 shares @ 45.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$2.3K
$-223.22
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
2769 shares @ 65.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$1.8K
$41.54
- YES
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?
4686 shares @ 13.5¢·now 36.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.7K
$1.1K
- YES
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
3686 shares @ 7.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$976.90
$719.01
- NO
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
1050 shares @ 47.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$835.03
$341.17
- YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
2086 shares @ 1.6¢·now 26.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$552.90
$519.01
Recent activity
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$3.5K4h ago
- YIELD$0.0713h ago
- YIELD$0.082d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$31.392d ago
- YIELD$0.083d ago
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$194.404d ago
- YIELD$0.084d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$246.774d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$81.604d ago
- YIELD$0.065d ago
- YIELD$0.076d ago
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$269.916d ago
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$10.616d ago
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$2.3K6d ago
- YIELD$0.087d ago
- YIELD$0.068d ago
- TRADEBUYWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$493.868d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$222.758d ago
- YIELD$0.089d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.8K9d ago
Score breakdown
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $701.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 13d ago
- Last active
- 4h ago
Score is a 0–100 composite of open position size, breadth (number of trades), realised + unrealised ROI, win rate on closed markets, and category specialisation.