Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Probability
13¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$19.47
Liquidity
$8.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 13¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1498h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1497.8h
- 14:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1498h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 13¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 13¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 13¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 14¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 11¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 12¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 12¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 12¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 14¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).