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SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 27, 2026

Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Probability

13¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-2.0pp

24h Vol

$19.47

Liquidity

$8.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

-6.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:13
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 13¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1498h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 12.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1497.8h

    LOW
  • 14:13Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 1498h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 27, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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