Intentional-Manager
0xb7c74975b4529ca35cd0cd91e444b2ca5c8db3bb
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
134
Open notional
$26.24
Total PnL
$-190.73
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 134- YES
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
22 shares @ 4.5¢·now 16.7¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$3.71
$2.71
- YES
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
17 shares @ 28.6¢·now 10.4¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$1.83
$-3.17
- YES
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
13 shares @ 7.7¢·now 12.2¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$1.58
$0.58
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.49
$0.49
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 30.7¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.40
$0.40
- YES
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$1.31
$0.31
- YES
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
28 shares @ 3.5¢·now 4.3¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$1.21
$0.21
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
13 shares @ 7.7¢·now 8.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.11
$0.11
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6 shares @ 18.1¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.11
$0.11
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
4 shares @ 25.7¢·now 27.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.05
$0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?$10.00Jul 19, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?$1.00Jul 19, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?$1.00Jul 19, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$41.49Jul 19, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jul 15, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jul 15, 21:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$2.02Jul 15, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?$1.00Jul 15, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?$2.00Jul 15, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?$2.00Jul 15, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?$2.00Jul 15, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?$5.00Jul 15, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?$5.00Jul 15, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?$1.00Jul 15, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?$1.00Jul 15, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?$1.00Jul 15, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?$1.00Jul 15, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?$1.00Jul 15, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?$10.00Jul 15, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?$1.00Jul 15, 20:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $3.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 01:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 20:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.