Violent-Distributor
0xba6bc52278f9213162e9382aaed5b825e68bb341
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$45.07
Total PnL
$-583.04
Realised
$78.03
Win rate
50%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
16 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$16.00
$1.12
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
12 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$12.00
$2.28
- YES
Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?
11 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$11.00
$1.21
- YES
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
6 shares @ 20.1¢·now 84.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$5.07
$3.86
- YES
Will Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026?
1 shares @ 95.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.00
$0.05
- NO
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
381 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-255.27
- YES
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?
381 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-83.82
- YES
Will Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary?
161 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-30.59
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
142 shares @ 87.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-123.60
- YES
Will Israel strike 0 countries in 2026?
111 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.33
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?$3.00May 21, 03:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mona Fastvold be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?$3.00May 21, 03:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?$5.00May 21, 03:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$9.00May 21, 03:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?$121.00May 21, 03:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keon Ellis be traded this season?$129.00May 21, 03:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?$512.00May 21, 03:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?$51.18Apr 21, 03:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Dell" or "Stellantis" during Pennsylvania events on December 9?$10.00Jan 11, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMOver 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$11.00Jan 11, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill NFT #1082 win the Based trading competition?$11.00Jan 11, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Atlas have an iOS app live by December 31?$12.00Jan 11, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Women's Sports" or "Transgender" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?$15.00Jan 11, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?$21.00Jan 11, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?$13.81Jan 11, 15:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?$50.92Jan 11, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?$414.72Jan 11, 06:23 UTC
- TRADESELLCerebras IPO before 2027?$134.85Jan 11, 06:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?$178.84Jan 11, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?$227.13Jan 11, 05:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $157.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 9, 23:40 UTC
- Last active
- May 21, 03:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.