Spicy-Acrylic
0xba6cd969abff48d00ecddff5b302430f6350618b
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$491.04
Total PnL
$-52.50
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?
50 shares @ 90.7¢·now 89.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$44.57
$-0.78
- NO
Probable FDV above $500M one day after launch?
50 shares @ 94.0¢·now 88.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$44.47
$-2.53
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-26 House seat?
50 shares @ 89.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$43.50
$-1.00
- NO
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?
50 shares @ 96.8¢·now 82.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$41.42
$-6.97
- YES
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?
50 shares @ 91.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$41.00
$-4.50
- NO
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31?
50 shares @ 90.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$40.50
$-4.50
- AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?
50 shares @ 86.1¢·now 80.8¢·exp Dec 20, 2026$40.40
$-2.65
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the NC-07 House seat?
50 shares @ 85.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$39.75
$-2.75
- NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?
50 shares @ 86.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.25
$-3.75
- NO
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
50 shares @ 81.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$36.25
$-4.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in June?$1.99Jul 9, 04:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?$40.00Jul 9, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?$45.35Jul 9, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the ME-01 House seat?$2.85Jul 9, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the TX-22 House seat?$42.76Jul 9, 02:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?$40.70Jul 9, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?$41.00Jul 9, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in June?$2.80Jul 9, 02:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2026?$1.87Jul 9, 02:24 UTC
- TRADESELLStandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?$6.63Jul 9, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the TX-22 House seat?$44.00Jul 9, 02:16 UTC
- TRADESELLKash Patel out by July 31?$1.01Jul 9, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$2.98Jul 9, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paul Skenes strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?$0.72Jul 9, 02:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the MA-06 House seat?$46.52Jul 9, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the MA-06 House seat?$46.90Jul 9, 02:12 UTC
- TRADESELLPredict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?$46.22Jul 9, 02:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$7.25Jul 9, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYKash Patel out by July 31?$1.45Jul 9, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYPredict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?$46.60Jul 9, 01:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $22.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 17:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 04:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.