Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
Probability
54¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$56.00
Liquidity
$3.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5986.2h
- 13:48SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 54¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 54¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 54¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 54¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 55¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 55¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 55¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 55¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 54¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 54¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 54¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 53¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 53¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 54¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).