Lean-Attraction
0xbad26fe5458e6219cec3e40272760e275e835296
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
130
Open notional
$94.5K
Total PnL
$19.4K
Realised
$15.8K
Win rate
74%
62 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 130- NO
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
16778 shares @ 85.8¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.2K
$772.22
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
12692 shares @ 43.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.5K
$57.59
- NO
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
4535 shares @ 82.7¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.3K
$581.28
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
5372 shares @ 77.9¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.1K
$-73.82
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
4296 shares @ 79.2¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.1K
$655.86
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
4283 shares @ 72.5¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.8K
$684.03
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
3696 shares @ 87.8¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.5K
$286.56
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
26279 shares @ 12.3¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.3K
$86.01
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
3333 shares @ 93.3¢·now 96.7¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$3.2K
$110.55
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3333 shares @ 73.9¢·now 80.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.7K
$223.31
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.07Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$2.09Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$18.58Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$417.65Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
- YIELD$2.11Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$1.7KJul 27, 02:50 UTC
- YIELD$2.11Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$9.49Jul 26, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$0.68Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$2.07Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$4.98Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$11.49Jul 25, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$52.30Jul 25, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$34.58Jul 25, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$9.31Jul 25, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$27.48Jul 25, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$35.46Jul 25, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$52.30Jul 25, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$52.30Jul 25, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$6.20Jul 25, 19:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
74% win rate over 62 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
62 closed markets, 74% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
$9.9K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $73.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 20:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 62 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.