Outrageous-Paddock
0xbad6bd1c03e36eb58f68aa0573f157f184ed9caa
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$22.51
Total PnL
$-3.41
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
5 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.60
$0.60
- YES
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
4 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.00
$2.00
- NO
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
2 shares @ 80.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$2.49
$0.49
- NO
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
2 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$2.38
$0.38
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
2 shares @ 87.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$2.26
$0.27
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
2 shares @ 89.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.94
$-0.06
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
2 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.75
$0.77
- YES
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?
1 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.30
$0.31
- YES
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on December 31?
2 shares @ 41.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
2 shares @ 43.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.80
$-0.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?$1.31Apr 24, 19:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill TISZA win 46-50% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?$0.00Apr 22, 23:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$0.00Apr 22, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?$1.21Apr 22, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?$0.00Apr 22, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$1.00Apr 22, 00:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$2.21Apr 22, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$1.15Apr 22, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$1.00Apr 22, 00:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?$1.28Apr 21, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$2.00Apr 21, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?$1.00Apr 21, 14:05 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?$2.30Apr 20, 12:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?$1.00Apr 20, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?$2.57Apr 19, 23:03 UTC
- REDEEMGames Total: O/U 2.5$0.00Apr 17, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?$2.16Apr 16, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?$1.00Apr 16, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$2.00Apr 16, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?$2.00Apr 16, 13:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $1.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 10, 02:02 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 24, 19:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.