0xbc5894a6239caeab463572d93fd8fcc1d4511d4e
0xbc5894a6239caeab463572d93fd8fcc1d4511d4e
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$35.59
Total PnL
$-28.04
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$5.13
$-0.12
- NO
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 96.8¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$5.08
$-0.17
- NO
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 95.9¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$5.04
$-0.21
- NO
Will Independence Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$4.97
$0.00
- NO
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 93.6¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.92
$-0.33
- NO
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 93.1¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.89
$-0.36
- NO
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 88.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.65
$-0.60
- YES
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 17.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.91
$-4.34
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3AM ET
8 shares @ 71.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-5.75
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8PM ET
6 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2025$0.00
$-5.48
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Antonio Maíllo be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?$4.97Jul 5, 15:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 4?$4.99Jul 5, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMIran successfully targets shipping on July 1?$4.98Jul 5, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 4?$4.98Jul 4, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 1?$4.98Jul 1, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by June 30?$4.99Jul 1, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 48.0 in June?$4.98Jul 1, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by June 30?$4.98Jul 1, 11:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$4.99Jul 1, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?$4.98Jul 1, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kuwait sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?$4.98Jul 1, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 48.0 in June?$4.98Jul 1, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kuwait sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?$4.98Jun 30, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?$4.98Jun 30, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$4.98Jun 30, 15:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?$5.06Jun 30, 08:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m?$4.98Jun 30, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?$4.98Jun 29, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m?$4.97Jun 29, 11:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Dell" this week?$4.98Jun 29, 06:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $4.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 13:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 15:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.