Capital-Expression
0xbdafb97c5d96b6be3f6894876e491651a80cf63c
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$405.85
Total PnL
$-743.95
Realised
$-141.93
Win rate
47%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026?
222 shares @ 24.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$187.59
$134.31
- YES
Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
323 shares @ 81.6¢·now 52.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$170.06
$-93.51
- NO
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026?
43 shares @ 43.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$38.27
$19.78
- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
10 shares @ 56.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.05
$0.45
- YES
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
3 shares @ 60.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.20
$-0.60
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1 shares @ 95.9¢·now 93.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.94
$-0.02
- NO
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?
1 shares @ 90.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.92
$0.01
- YES
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
40 shares @ 19.0¢·now 1.9¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.78
$-6.82
- YES
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
1 shares @ 13.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.04
$-0.09
- YES
Will Jensen Huang say "Bubble" during NVIDIA keynote?
477 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-104.94
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00Apr 30, 10:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?$2.00Apr 30, 10:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?$4.00Apr 30, 10:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$5.00Apr 30, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026?$34.10Apr 21, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLRipple Labs IPO before 2027?$9.23Apr 21, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?$11.89Apr 21, 04:35 UTC
- TRADESELLRipple Labs IPO before 2027?$3.00Apr 21, 04:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?$85.31Apr 21, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLmert mindshare all time high by March 31?$1.08Feb 8, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLmert mindshare all time high by March 31?$2.87Feb 8, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$12.09Feb 8, 18:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?$6.90Feb 8, 17:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?$32.00Feb 8, 16:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?$38.40Feb 8, 16:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?$88.80Feb 8, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$2.24Feb 8, 14:36 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$86.08Feb 8, 14:36 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$83.20Feb 8, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$74.88Feb 8, 14:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
47% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $71.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 11, 07:35 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 30, 10:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.