Tan-Creativity
0xbdd08fc7a71196e4aa28741b903cb8e8ccbe550a
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
138
Open notional
$436.13
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$0.18
Win rate
64%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 138- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
150 shares @ 68.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$104.23
$2.23
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
100 shares @ 77.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$85.00
$8.00
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
100 shares @ 65.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$75.00
$10.00
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
100 shares @ 77.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$71.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
40 shares @ 66.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$33.80
$7.40
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
50 shares @ 67.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$32.25
$-1.25
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
25 shares @ 46.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.38
$7.88
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
130 shares @ 13.6¢·now 9.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$12.35
$-5.35
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
38 shares @ 40.2¢·now 7.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.89
$-12.18
- YES
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
200 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.10
$-2.70
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$19.50Jul 29, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$28.50Jul 29, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$4.20Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$7.00Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$2.60Jul 28, 09:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$4.97Jul 28, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$2.60Jul 28, 07:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?$11.61Jul 28, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$1.30Jul 28, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.85Jul 28, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.85Jul 28, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$77.00Jul 28, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$65.00Jul 28, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$23.00Jul 28, 06:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$52.66Jul 28, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$67.00Jul 26, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$77.00Jul 26, 10:12 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$261.98Jul 26, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$102.00Jul 26, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$26.76Jul 26, 08:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $40.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 19:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 14:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.