New-Friction
0xbed03391979811cf85eee95ccf5eade3397de918
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$44.99
Total PnL
$-30.07
Realised
$-0.10
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
26 shares @ 88.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$24.70
$1.70
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
11 shares @ 91.1¢·now 96.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.55
$0.55
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
8 shares @ 61.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.71
$-0.29
- YES
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
2 shares @ 92.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$1.83
$-0.17
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
2 shares @ 56.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.78
$-0.22
- NO
Will "The Odyssey" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.78
$-0.22
- YES
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?
1 shares @ 79.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.67
$-0.33
- NO
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
36 shares @ 36.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- YES
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
26 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$1.00Jun 13, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$1.00Jun 13, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.00Jun 12, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.00Jun 12, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?$1.01Jun 11, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$1.01Jun 9, 20:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$1.15Jun 9, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.00Jun 9, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$1.01May 16, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$10.04May 9, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?$23.11May 9, 00:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$57.69May 8, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$37.00Mar 27, 15:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$5.11Mar 27, 15:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$5.37Mar 27, 15:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$6.69Mar 27, 15:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$9.33Mar 27, 15:00 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?$11.90Mar 27, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?$2.00Jan 15, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?$1.00Jan 15, 22:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $4.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 9, 07:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 08:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.