Juvenile-Resemblance
0xbf9485c1c798c1e993844b9e28ad43aac26037bf
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$92.72
Total PnL
$3.09
Realised
$1.49
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
18 shares @ 81.8¢·now 79.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$14.56
$-0.41
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
25 shares @ 40.0¢·now 37.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.25
$-0.75
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
16 shares @ 68.1¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.21
$-1.69
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
9 shares @ 81.3¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$8.22
$1.22
- YES
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
9 shares @ 84.9¢·now 83.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$7.87
$-0.13
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 78.2¢·now 98.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.47
$1.51
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?
7 shares @ 93.5¢·now 96.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$6.47
$0.19
- NO
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?
6 shares @ 88.2¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.55
$0.55
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
5 shares @ 91.9¢·now 97.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.29
$0.29
- NO
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
6 shares @ 89.2¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.02
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$1.01Jul 13, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$1.00Jul 13, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$1.01Jul 13, 15:14 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$9.20Jul 13, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?$1.28Jul 11, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.00Jul 10, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael election: will Likud lose seats?$1.01Jul 10, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$1.00Jul 10, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?$2.01Jul 9, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$1.01Jul 9, 20:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.00Jul 9, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.90Jul 9, 04:22 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$2.44Jul 8, 21:55 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$4.99Jul 8, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$1.01Jul 8, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$2.02Jul 8, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?$3.01Jul 8, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.00Jul 7, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.00Jul 7, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.00Jul 6, 21:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $2.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 11:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 19:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.