Giddy-Poppy
0xbfccc586c262d94f42c5f4fa34465d20105312a6
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
52
Open notional
$13.6K
Total PnL
$46.14
Realised
$-306.33
Win rate
22%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- NO
Kash Patel out by December 31?
1465 shares @ 34.1¢·now 77.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$628.11
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1360 shares @ 70.3¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$165.42
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?
1051 shares @ 95.1¢·now 98.8¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$1.0K
$38.25
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?
935 shares @ 96.3¢·now 99.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$924.71
$24.71
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?
917 shares @ 74.5¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$664.48
$-18.72
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
643 shares @ 89.6¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$607.54
$31.67
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?
645 shares @ 93.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$590.32
$-9.68
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
556 shares @ 62.1¢·now 97.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$541.29
$195.59
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
659 shares @ 54.6¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$510.99
$150.99
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
592 shares @ 72.6¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$488.98
$58.98
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.06Aug 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 16, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?$58.00Aug 15, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)$20.73Aug 15, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$77.97Aug 15, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$55.00Aug 15, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Snapchat be acquired before 2027?$100.60Aug 15, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in August?$100.39Aug 15, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in August?$101.57Aug 15, 11:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 15, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?$359.02Aug 14, 23:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 14, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?$102.43Aug 13, 16:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?$101.43Aug 13, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?$48.06Aug 13, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?$300.84Aug 13, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?$300.84Aug 13, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?$300.37Aug 13, 14:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Aug 13, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$951.06Aug 12, 18:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $157.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 4, 15:53 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.