Amusing-Sitar-Obedience
0xc2a3e013f66a7def06db02a790dc1597fc83a7b0
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$489.30
Total PnL
$103.74
Realised
$267.69
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?
65 shares @ 77.0¢·now 97.2¢·exp Sep 17, 2026$62.89
$13.07
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
71 shares @ 71.1¢·now 86.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$61.18
$10.69
- NO
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
66 shares @ 77.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.87
$6.25
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
85 shares @ 59.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$42.08
$-8.07
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
135 shares @ 37.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.05
$-12.80
- YES
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
66 shares @ 77.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.10
$-15.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 22?
60 shares @ 49.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$28.50
$-0.90
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
43 shares @ 35.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$28.24
$13.15
- YES
Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?
30 shares @ 87.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$26.55
$0.45
- YES
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?
55 shares @ 46.1¢·now 46.1¢·exp Jan 19, 2027$25.33
$-0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have exactly 14 launches in August 2026?$0.30Aug 20, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have exactly 14 launches in August 2026?$17.20Aug 20, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYSweden Parliamentary Election: C Over/Under 6%?$2.18Aug 20, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 22?$17.97Aug 20, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 22?$5.13Aug 20, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 22?$17.40Aug 20, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 22?$30.15Aug 20, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?$26.27Aug 20, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?$26.04Aug 20, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$4.50Aug 20, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$4.50Aug 20, 15:26 UTC
- REDEEMClub Atlético de Madrid vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5$55.00Aug 19, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYEli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?$7.50Aug 19, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$100.08Aug 19, 06:12 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: New York Liberty (-4.5)$39.00Aug 19, 03:33 UTC
- REDEEMLearner Tien vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5$33.00Aug 19, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 19?$3.32Aug 18, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 19?$0.93Aug 18, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 19?$7.20Aug 18, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 19?$3.24Aug 18, 19:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $14.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 21:17 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 19:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.