Organic-Pit
0xc35e32ca98a58e697959a053c58a7823ee926d12
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
39
Open notional
$5.96
Total PnL
$-79.15
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
64 shares @ 15.5¢·now 3.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$1.97
$-8.03
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
193 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$1.06
$-1.44
- NO
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?
1 shares @ 96.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
1 shares @ 98.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.88
$-1.13
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
1625 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-6.50
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 19?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $102,000 on January 19?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
633 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?$1.10Apr 30, 13:36 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Colombia by December 31?$1.18Apr 30, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China unban Bitcoin by 2027?$1.35Apr 30, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$4.72Apr 30, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump be impeached by end of 2026?$4.38Apr 30, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?$6.91Apr 30, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$6.34Apr 30, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI IPO before 2027?$7.85Apr 30, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US strike 7 countries in 2026?$11.34Apr 30, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$10.35Apr 30, 13:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?$9.80Apr 30, 13:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 30, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 16, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
13 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 13
- Avg trade size
- $5.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 20, 00:19 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 30, 13:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.