Disguised-Spider
0xc40681969b90c1e54527775fa48273a06bef07d9
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$19.6K
Total PnL
$-18.3K
Realised
$881.98
Win rate
83%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
3622 shares @ 79.1¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.5K
$600.55
- NO
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
3877 shares @ 66.3¢·now 78.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.0K
$452.48
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
10000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.9K
$1.9K
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
2000 shares @ 38.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$830.52
- NO
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
1575 shares @ 87.1¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$159.83
- NO
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
1500 shares @ 61.3¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$243.50
- NO
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
1500 shares @ 67.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$67.50
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
20100 shares @ 2.9¢·now 4.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$974.85
$397.50
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4998 shares @ 0.7¢·now 13.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$662.27
$626.11
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
8500 shares @ 0.7¢·now 5.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$480.25
$418.74
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.95Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.95Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.96Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.97Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.96Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.95Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.94Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.94Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.94Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.96Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.97Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.96Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.97Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.98Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.00Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.99Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.98Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.99Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.98Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.97Jul 9, 00:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.