Serpentine-Illusion
0xc412fdbe9956c2e242e8b45fae131c3e8598592d
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
64
Open notional
$11.1K
Total PnL
$-644.35
Realised
$-392.10
Win rate
55%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 64- NO
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
1203 shares @ 92.1¢·now 88.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.1K
$-41.14
- NO
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
1004 shares @ 91.1¢·now 99.8¢·exp May 29, 2026$1.0K
$86.43
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
1275 shares @ 65.3¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$930.77
$97.76
- NO
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?
1000 shares @ 84.8¢·now 81.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$810.99
$-37.00
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
1600 shares @ 36.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$551.84
$-24.16
- NO
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
500 shares @ 95.7¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$492.25
$13.75
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
800 shares @ 72.7¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$488.00
$-94.00
- NO
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
600 shares @ 81.8¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$471.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
500 shares @ 82.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$412.50
$2.50
- NO
Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?
400 shares @ 98.7¢·now 99.9¢·exp May 19, 2026$399.40
$4.80
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?$100.00Jun 13, 15:42 UTC
- TRADESELLNew Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?$0.04Jun 13, 13:50 UTC
- REWARD$0.15Jun 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jun 13, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$5.15Jun 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$181.20Jun 12, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$171.78Jun 12, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$10.21Jun 12, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$123.90Jun 12, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$59.10Jun 12, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$122.00Jun 12, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$40.86Jun 12, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? $72.00Jun 12, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?$91.00Jun 12, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$230.59Jun 12, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$3.41Jun 12, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$54.00Jun 12, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$185.20Jun 12, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$54.00Jun 12, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$20.47Jun 12, 05:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $86.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 03:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 15:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.