Serpentine-Illusion
0xc412fdbe9956c2e242e8b45fae131c3e8598592d
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
148
Open notional
$19.8K
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$-904.33
Win rate
34%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 148- NO
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?
1620 shares @ 89.5¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$-0.92
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
1705 shares @ 72.5¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$1.3K
$67.58
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
1000 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$996.48
$11.00
- NO
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
907 shares @ 90.3¢·now 97.7¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$885.24
$66.51
- NO
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?
1000 shares @ 84.8¢·now 86.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$859.49
$11.50
- NO
Gemini 4.0 released by July 31, 2026?
795 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$791.02
$1.11
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
1000 shares @ 92.5¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$775.65
$-149.66
- YES
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
1000 shares @ 55.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$734.99
$185.00
- YES
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
1000 shares @ 60.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$675.00
$75.00
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?
650 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$648.38
$4.63
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?$0.04Jul 28, 18:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$149.99Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$207.61Jul 28, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by August 31?$94.80Jul 28, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by August 31?$57.66Jul 28, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?$3.03Jul 28, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 4.0 released by July 31, 2026?$297.90Jul 28, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 4.0 released by July 31, 2026?$99.40Jul 28, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Cristobal?$4.48Jul 28, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$2.34Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$0.09Jul 27, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$0.01Jul 27, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Susan Collins vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$25.00Jul 27, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Susan Collins vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$25.50Jul 27, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Fetterman vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$69.76Jul 27, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$32.95Jul 27, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$62.76Jul 27, 21:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rand Paul vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$4.46Jul 27, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rand Paul vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$70.88Jul 27, 21:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
34% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $59.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 14:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.