Rectangular-Download-Interviewer
0xc41988f25f9dfe021a1e8699e8b7e0adbe0cca5b
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$131.78
Total PnL
$-556.23
Realised
$182.19
Win rate
54%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
62 shares @ 20.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$45.86
$33.46
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
39 shares @ 4.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$30.83
$29.27
- YES
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
46 shares @ 2.9¢·now 36.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$16.95
$15.60
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
62 shares @ 20.0¢·now 24.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$15.38
$2.98
- YES
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
34 shares @ 2.6¢·now 43.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$14.79
$13.92
- NO
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
27 shares @ 10.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.79
$0.14
- YES
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
36 shares @ 2.9¢·now 4.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.42
$0.36
- NO
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
22 shares @ 6.4¢·now 5.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.25
$-0.14
- YES
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
34 shares @ 2.6¢·now 2.6¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$0.88
$0.01
- YES
Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
23 shares @ 5.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.55
$-0.60
Recent activity
- CONVERSIONAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?$3.33Jul 23, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$1.60Jul 23, 23:11 UTC
- CONVERSIONBest Chinese AI Company end of July?$78.00Jul 23, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$38.76Jul 23, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$38.96Jul 23, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$31.53Jul 23, 21:03 UTC
- CONVERSIONNebraska Senate Election Winner $5.00Jul 23, 20:17 UTC
- CONVERSIONAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?$64.32Jul 23, 20:10 UTC
- CONVERSIONTesla (TSLA) closes week of Jul 20 at ___?$50.00Jul 23, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$1.34Jul 23, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$4.99Jul 23, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) close at <$355 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$0.06Jul 23, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) close at $385-$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$4.99Jul 23, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) close at $375-$380 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$4.99Jul 23, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) close at >$400 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$4.99Jul 23, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) close at $390-$395 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$4.99Jul 23, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) close at $360-$365 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$4.99Jul 23, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) close at $370-$375 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$4.99Jul 23, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) close at $355-$360 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$4.95Jul 23, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla (TSLA) close at $380-$385 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$4.99Jul 23, 20:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
54% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $15.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 13:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 23:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.