Upbeat-Divorce
0xc48e6711da028adf55f7a513abc94faddfd26590
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$35.43
Total PnL
$-324.24
Realised
$-3.38
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
4 shares @ 84.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.47
$0.47
- YES
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?
4 shares @ 72.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.23
$0.23
- NO
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?
5 shares @ 51.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$2.90
$0.35
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 38.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$2.63
$0.72
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
3 shares @ 75.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.36
$0.36
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
3 shares @ 67.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.28
$0.28
- NO
Will Meta launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?
3 shares @ 77.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.09
$0.09
- NO
Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 98.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.95
$-0.05
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
53 shares @ 7.5¢·now 3.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.78
$-2.22
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
29 shares @ 16.7¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.61
$-3.29
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down on July 28?$1.06Jul 28, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?$1.00Jul 27, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$1.07Jul 27, 07:41 UTC
- REDEEMHYPE Up or Down on July 26?$2.06Jul 26, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down on July 26?$1.05Jul 26, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYHYPE Up or Down on July 26?$2.00Jul 25, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.01Jul 23, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down on July 23?$1.06Jul 23, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYHYPE Up or Down on July 22?$1.07Jul 22, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 22?$2.14Jul 22, 15:19 UTC
- REDEEMBNB Up or Down on July 20?$6.61Jul 20, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?$1.04Jul 20, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down on July 20?$1.03Jul 20, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down on July 20?$2.08Jul 20, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on July 19?$2.13Jul 19, 11:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.91Jul 19, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 18?$1.07Jul 18, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 17?$1.70Jul 17, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$1.04Jul 14, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 13?$1.06Jul 13, 08:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $1.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 07:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 09:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.