Repulsive-Shackle
0xc550e5ee1011afb6d37c7fbb18fea32e03f9272d
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$160.3K
Total PnL
$5.3K
Realised
$520.74
Win rate
69%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16728 shares @ 78.8¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.1K
$-47.78
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
12211 shares @ 91.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$12.2K
$956.76
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
13236 shares @ 90.8¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.1K
$88.84
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
13041 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.9K
$65.41
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
13742 shares @ 83.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$11.7K
$276.56
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
12900 shares @ 87.7¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.4K
$100.14
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
10755 shares @ 91.3¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$10.1K
$233.34
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
9330 shares @ 85.5¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.7K
$701.90
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
8500 shares @ 82.3¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$7.3K
$267.61
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
6850 shares @ 96.1¢·now 97.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.7K
$84.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$3.90Jul 28, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$1.15Jul 28, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by August 31?$470.36Jul 28, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by August 31?$5.14Jul 28, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by August 31?$476.50Jul 28, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?$205.32Jul 28, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$16.18Jul 28, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$4.84Jul 28, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$4.22Jul 28, 01:04 UTC
- YIELD$2.60Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$16.18Jul 27, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$624.98Jul 27, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?$131.18Jul 27, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$1.4KJul 27, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?$608.12Jul 27, 20:52 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$4.7KJul 27, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$54.69Jul 27, 16:40 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$300.00Jul 27, 16:39 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$27.60Jul 27, 16:31 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$1.02Jul 27, 15:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $476.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 19:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 14:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.