0xc6d76fd31b710883900a14c75eab96515dfb4399
0xc6d76fd31b710883900a14c75eab96515dfb4399
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
176
Open notional
$22.79
Total PnL
$-223.03
Realised
$-10.07
Win rate
56%
80 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 176- YES
Will William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
10 shares @ 12.1¢·now 33.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2026$3.30
$2.09
- YES
Will Ryan Gosling be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?
23 shares @ 11.6¢·now 6.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.50
$-1.11
- YES
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.15
$-0.14
- YES
Will Connor Burbridge be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?
21 shares @ 5.0¢·now 4.7¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$0.98
$-0.06
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.80
$-0.08
- YES
Will Nongshim Challengers win LCK CL 2026?
8 shares @ 11.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$0.79
$-0.04
- YES
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?
33 shares @ 8.2¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.68
$-2.03
- YES
Will the Democrats win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?
41 shares @ 6.0¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.67
$-1.76
- YES
Will USD/KRW hit 1650 (High) in 2026?
6 shares @ 32.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.63
$-1.38
- NO
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 9.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.62
$0.51
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?$0.59Jul 10, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?$0.94Jul 10, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?$0.79Jul 10, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$0.84Jul 10, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the WI-07 House seat?$0.77Jul 10, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?$0.69Jul 10, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the FL-20 House seat?$0.75Jul 10, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?$0.89Jul 10, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shelley Hughes advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?$0.91Jul 10, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELL100kt meteor strike in 2026?$0.91Jul 10, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLDutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?$0.96Jul 10, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027?$0.96Jul 10, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?$1.15Jul 10, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?$1.02Jul 10, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the CA-18 House seat?$1.23Jul 10, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?$1.21Jul 10, 08:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?$1.20Jul 10, 08:41 UTC
- TRADESELLH.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?$1.35Jul 10, 08:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the AL-01 House seat?$1.44Jul 10, 08:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the CA-16 House seat?$1.44Jul 10, 08:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 80 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
80 closed markets, 56% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 1, 07:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 08:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 80 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.