Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?
Probability
9¢
1h
+0.3pp
24h
-0.2pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$17.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5989.8h
- 10:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5990h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.2pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).