Will Shelley Hughes advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$320.70
Liquidity
$18.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 8¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $18.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2731.6h
Price movement
-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarynatoTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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