Spirited-Bid
0xc71b43cf1a6c9f79743bdf5e15a763d93d7ce265
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$9.93
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-228.87
Win rate
26%
74 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027?
50 shares @ 12.7¢·now 2.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.13
$-5.22
- YES
Will Richard Gadd – “Half Man” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?
20 shares @ 10.9¢·now 3.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$0.61
$-1.57
- YES
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $215B by July 31?
105 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.58
$-11.97
- YES
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between -2.4% and -1.6%?
19 shares @ 26.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.56
$-4.45
- YES
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by July 31?
50 shares @ 12.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.53
$-5.47
- YES
Will Melissa Bailey be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?
78 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.7¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$0.51
$-3.34
- YES
Will Tarsier Pharma's market cap be greater than $450M at market close on IPO day?
20 shares @ 30.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.51
$-5.49
- YES
Taylor & Travis divorce in 2026?
20 shares @ 12.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.48
$-1.92
- YES
Will Taylor Dearden – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?
20 shares @ 17.3¢·now 2.4¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$0.48
$-2.98
- YES
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $36B by July 31?
50 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.47
$-5.53
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill International Business Machines (IBM) Q2 Software revenue be above $8.05B?$0.29Jul 23, 17:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arizona have the closest Governor's race in 2026?$0.05Jul 23, 17:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?$0.29Jul 23, 17:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?$0.53Jul 23, 17:04 UTC
- TRADESELLRyan Reynolds as Deadpool?$0.54Jul 23, 17:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,017,000 and $1,053,000 on September 30?$0.21Jul 23, 17:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?$0.52Jul 23, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?$0.54Jul 23, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 1.3%?$0.02Jul 23, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$0.55Jul 23, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Timothy Wilcox win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?$0.19Jul 23, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLNaim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?$0.53Jul 23, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$0.56Jul 23, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July?$0.49Jul 23, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wes Moore announce a Presidential run before 2027?$0.58Jul 23, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31?$0.62Jul 23, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Carleigh Beriont be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?$0.48Jul 23, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLRomanian parliament dissolved by July 31?$0.38Jul 23, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit Greenland by December 31?$0.54Jul 23, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31?$0.63Jul 23, 17:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
26% win rate over 74 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
74 closed markets, 26% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $0.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 23:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 17:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 74 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.