Junior-Burn
0xc77bc7c12cff77cd80de2d3377ce22aec3a6a526
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
153
Open notional
$0.88
Total PnL
$-5.2K
Realised
$-1.3K
Win rate
20%
59 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 153- YES
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1170 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.58
$-13.44
- YES
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
502 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.25
$-53.52
- YES
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
83 shares @ 31.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.04
$-26.23
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
8767 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-52.24
- YES
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
7207 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-37.31
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
3628 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-28.81
- YES
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?
3310 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-6.62
- YES
Netanyahu out by April 30?
3062 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-12.40
- YES
Will Jasmine Crockett and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?
2888 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-138.82
- YES
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
2252 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-20.54
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.02Jul 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.02Jul 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.02Jul 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.02Jul 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.02Jul 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.04Jul 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.04Jul 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.04Jul 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.04Jul 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.04Jul 22, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GameStop acquire eBay?$0.84Jul 20, 23:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.27Jul 20, 23:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?$0.09Jul 18, 15:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.28Jul 14, 17:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta (META) close above $600 on July 6?$4.99Jul 14, 17:36 UTC
- REDEEMHonor of Kings: Bacon Time vs Team Flash (BO7) - Arena of Valor Premier League Playoffs$4.99Jul 14, 17:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Graham Platner drop out by July 6?$4.99Jul 14, 17:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 59 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
59 closed markets, 20% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $2.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 12:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 17:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 59 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.