Competent-Fantasy
0xc8a5fb6e9e78cc63ec344d85fed665f8eac382bd
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$2.6K
Total PnL
$-184.10
Realised
$4.48
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
374 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$353.80
$5.80
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
360 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$344.44
$9.69
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
321 shares @ 95.7¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$308.86
$1.77
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?
300 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$297.75
$1.05
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
250 shares @ 97.7¢·now 98.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$244.88
$0.57
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?
200 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$198.80
$1.90
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
200 shares @ 98.6¢·now 99.1¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$198.10
$0.90
- NO
Trump out as President by August 31?
100 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$99.20
$0.00
- NO
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 96.7¢·now 97.8¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$97.75
$1.05
- NO
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
100 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$95.50
$0.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.06Aug 4, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$99.14Aug 3, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?$48.88Aug 3, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by August 31?$99.23Aug 3, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?$34.26Aug 3, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?$52.89Aug 3, 12:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$200.00Aug 3, 06:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$152.68Aug 3, 06:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?$94.00Aug 3, 04:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 2, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?$48.12Aug 1, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?$48.51Aug 1, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$198.00Aug 1, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?$99.23Aug 1, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?$196.54Aug 1, 06:31 UTC
- REDEEMTrump out as President by July 31?$200.00Aug 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$100.00Aug 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon SBF by July 31?$101.42Aug 1, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$100.00Aug 1, 06:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $101.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.