Unacceptable-Word
0xc8fb5b326c76af78c8f7c66cb8ead240c30572cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
58
Open notional
$495.95
Total PnL
$-563.76
Realised
$-4.29
Win rate
5%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 58- NO
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?
114 shares @ 93.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$113.52
$7.63
- NO
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
60 shares @ 93.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$58.53
$2.73
- NO
Will Cristhian Mosquera be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad list?
49 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$49.17
$11.31
- NO
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
33 shares @ 81.4¢·now 97.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.06
$5.20
- NO
Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?
30 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$30.00
$5.40
- NO
Will VOX (VOX) win 19-21 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?
25 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$25.00
$5.00
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
20 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$20.00
$7.40
- YES
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?
20 shares @ 72.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$19.96
$5.45
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026?
20 shares @ 72.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.40
$4.00
- NO
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win fewer than 21 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?
17 shares @ 95.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$17.30
$0.83
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?$2.49May 24, 11:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?$0.17May 24, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m?$36.37May 24, 10:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?$1.00May 24, 09:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?$1.00May 24, 09:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?$1.46May 24, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m?$2.40May 24, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m?$1.23May 24, 08:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?$0.92May 24, 08:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?$0.08May 24, 08:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?$2.05May 24, 07:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$1.38May 24, 05:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23?$14.00May 24, 05:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23?$32.39May 24, 05:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?$12.28May 23, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?$13.31May 23, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?$17.25May 23, 11:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17?$20.00May 21, 13:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17?$20.00May 21, 13:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17?$91.87May 21, 13:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $5.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 08:40 UTC
- Last active
- May 24, 11:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.