Imaginary-Screenwriting
0xc90240c20fa7f94672d77b8cad838c05b9e0cd14
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$15.9K
Total PnL
$-13.7K
Realised
$665.65
Win rate
78%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
10808 shares @ 50.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$10.8K
$5.4K
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
2595 shares @ 42.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.3K
$246.50
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
1185 shares @ 91.3¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$57.70
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
9892 shares @ 48.6¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$741.92
$-4.1K
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
13108 shares @ 32.1¢·now 4.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$635.74
$-3.6K
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
9800 shares @ 29.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$441.00
$-2.4K
- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
411 shares @ 70.9¢·now 72.2¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$296.72
$5.14
- YES
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
725 shares @ 35.1¢·now 25.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$181.21
$-73.33
- YES
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
573 shares @ 30.9¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$117.41
$-59.41
- NO
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
100 shares @ 70.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$80.50
$10.44
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.06Aug 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 7, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$3.50Aug 7, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$886.25Aug 6, 12:22 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$90.93Aug 6, 12:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 5, 02:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 3, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 2, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Aug 1, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 31, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 30, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $604.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 14:41 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.