Probable-Venti
0xc913abec5141821891e40ca93bfc325c6b034f43
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$17.64
Total PnL
$-6.01
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Spider-Man die in Avengers: Doomsday?
12 shares @ 89.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$7.78
$-2.87
- YES
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
4 shares @ 23.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.11
$1.11
- NO
D4vd released from custody in 2026?
2 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.02
$0.02
- YES
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$1.50
$0.50
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
2 shares @ 42.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.18
$0.18
- NO
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
1 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
1 shares @ 87.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.90
$-0.10
- YES
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?
2 shares @ 45.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.67
$-0.33
- NO
Will Thor die in Avengers: Doomsday?
1 shares @ 74.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.49
$-0.51
- YES
Will "Supergirl" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "The Odyssey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$2.09Jul 20, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$1.16Jul 8, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spider-Man die in Avengers: Doomsday?$10.71Jul 7, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thor die in Avengers: Doomsday?$1.01Jul 7, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$1.01Jun 25, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$2.00Jun 25, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Johnny Somali's Sentence Be Extended?$1.01Jun 25, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E6 S9?$1.02Jun 25, 06:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill anyone say "Alien" during Rick and Morty E6 S9?$0.37Jun 25, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Alien" during Rick and Morty E6 S9?$1.04Jun 25, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? $1.00Jun 25, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYD4vd released from custody in 2026?$2.01Jun 25, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYCallum Turner announced as next James Bond?$1.03Jun 25, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?$1.01Jun 25, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Supergirl" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$1.04Jun 25, 05:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?$2.44May 3, 10:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026?$0.00Apr 4, 19:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?$0.00Apr 4, 19:58 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$5.43Apr 4, 19:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k?$1.18Apr 4, 19:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $1.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 29, 12:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 16:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.