Valid-Aim
0xc96cb25888f25ab1929b575834a6c406234f6a98
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$27.6K
Total PnL
$-244.9K
Realised
$-7.0K
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
100450 shares @ 17.9¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.6K
$9.6K
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
14 shares @ 62.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$13.54
$4.97
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
200000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-400.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
200000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-1.0K
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
194142 shares @ 82.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-160.4K
- NO
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
119000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-357.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
100000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
94630 shares @ 83.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-79.4K
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
65217 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-4.6K
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
50000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-250.00
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.48Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$0.30Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$4.77Jul 22, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.6KJul 12, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$16.4KJul 12, 03:45 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$18.0KJul 2, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?$0.83Jul 2, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$5.00Jun 23, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$4.7KJun 17, 05:44 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?$6.17Jun 17, 05:43 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$9.00Jun 17, 05:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$4.6KJun 17, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$246.00Jun 16, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$378.01Jun 15, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$54.07Jun 15, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$146.00Jun 15, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$146.00Jun 15, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$146.00Jun 15, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$146.00Jun 15, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$146.00Jun 15, 03:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
12/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
limited
3 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
$42.4K · 62% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.7K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 09:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.